秒速飞艇计划软件

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中融基金:美联储降息至“0利率”,欧美疫情尚未到拐点

  • 来   源:中融基金作   者:时   间:2020-03-16
  • 关键词:

美联储突然大幅降息、重启QE

3月16日凌晨,美联储突然打出一套组合拳:将联邦基金利率的目标区间降低100个基点至0-0.25%;将银行的紧急贷款贴现率下调了125个基点至0.25%,并将贷款期限延长至90天;推出7000亿美元规模的QE计划,具体是将在未来数月购买5000亿美元美国国债、2000亿美元机构支持抵押贷款证券。

MEILIANCHUHAIJIANGYUJIANADAYANGXING、YINGGUOYANGXING、RIBENYANGXING、OUZHOUYANGXINGHERUISHIYANGXINGDACHENGXIEYI,JIANGDIHUOBIHUHUANLILV,YIBAOCHIJINRONGSHICHANGDEZHENGCHANGYUNXING。

ZAISUIHOUDEXINWENFABUHUISHANG,MEILIANCHUZHUXIBAOWEIERCHENG,MEIGUOJINGJIRENGRANQIANGJING,DANXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGZAIQUANQIUDEMANYAN,SHIDEJINGJIZENGZHANGMIANLINFENGXIAN,YINCIXUYAOJISHICAIQUXINGDONG,LAIZHICHIJINGJIDEWENDINGHEZENGZHANG。MEILIANCHUZHUNBEI“DONGYONGYIQIEGONGJU”ZHICHIXINDAILIURUJIATINGHEQIYE,YIBIANBAOCHIJINGJIQIANGJINGZENGZHANG,KUODAJIUYE,WEICHIWUJIAWENDING。QEJIHUAZHIZAIRANGGUANJIANSHICHANGHUIFUZHENGCHANGYUNXING,MEIYOUMEIZHOUHUOMEIYUEXIANZHI。MEILIANCHUSHICHANGCAOZUOBUMENJIANGYIQIANGJINGDELIDUCHUSHOU,YIJINKUAIHUIFUSHICHANGYUNZUO、LIUDONGXING。

DANSHIBAOWEIERCHENG,BURENWEIFULILVSHIHEMEIGUO,MEILIANCHUHUIJUJIAOYUQITA“LIUDONGXINGGONGJU”YIBAOCHILIUDONGXINGTONGCHANGYIJIJINRONGSHICHANGWENDINGYUNXING。

 

美联储近期大幅放松货币政策的历程

秒速飞艇计划软件 3YUE3RI,MEILIANCHUTURANXUANBUJIANGLIANBANGJIJINLILVMUBIAOQUJIANCONG1.5-1.75%JIANGDI50JIDIANZHI1-1.25%。SUIHOUMEIGUKAIQIBAODIEMOSHI,YANYICHUSHISHIJIDEJINRONGBODONG(CANJIAN3YUE13RIDEDIANPINGOUMEIRIGUSHIDUIAGUDEBIANJIYINGXIANGJIANGZHUJIANDANHUA)。ZAICIQIANHOU,GEGUOFENFENJIANGXI。

3YUE12-13RI,MEILIANCHUTONGGUONIUYUELIANCHUYINXING,YIHUIGOUDEXINGSHIXIANGSHICHANGTOUFANGLE1.5WANYIMEIYUAN,YIHUANJIELIUDONGXINGJINZHANGJUMIAN。

ANZHAOCIQIANDESHIJIANBIAO,MEILIANCHUYAOZAI3YUE17-18RIZHAOKAIYIXIHUIYI,TAOLUNXIADIAOLIANBANGJIJINLILVDEWENTI,SHICHANGYUQIBENCIYIXIHUIYIJIANGJIANGXI50BP。DANMEILIANCHUBUJINLIANLIANGTIANDOUBUYUANYIDENG,HAIYIBUDAOWEIDIXUANBUJIANGXI100BP。

NEIME,MEILIANCHUWEISHENMEYAOCAIQUZHEIMEDALIDUDECIJIZHENGCE?

 

刺激的缘由

秒速飞艇计划软件 CIJIDEGENYUANSHIYIQINGDEMANYAN。

ZHONGSUOZHOUZHI,ZAIMEIYOUYIMIAODEQINGKUANGXIA,EZHIYIQINGMANYANDEZUIYOUXIAOCUOSHISHI:DUIHUANZHEHEYISIHUANZHEJINXINGJIANCE、ZHENDUAN、SHOUZHI、GELI;BINGZHUIZONGQIXINGCHENG,BAMIQIEJIECHUZHEYEJINXINGGELI,JIEDUANBINGDUDECHUANBO。GELILVYUEGAO,YIQINGJIUNENGYUEKUAIDEDAOKONGZHI。ZHEIZHENGSHIZHONGGUOCAIQUDECUOSHI。

秒速飞艇计划软件 DANSHI,SUIRANMEIGUOZONGTONGTELANGPUZAI3YUE14RIXUANBUMEIGUOJINRU“GUOJIAJINJIZHUANGTAI”,BINGGONGBULEYIXILIEXINGZHENGCUOSHI,BAOKUOYIGONGSIHEZUOFANGSHIKUODAZAIBIANLICHANGSUOJIANCEXINGUANBINGDU、JIANQINGXUESHENGDAIKUANFUDAN、FUYUYILIAOZHUANYERENSHIZAIZHILIAOHUANZHESHIEWAI“LINGHUOXING”。OUZHOUGEGUOYECAIQULEYIXIECUOSHI,DANSHIJIEZHIMUQIAN,OUMEIJIMEIYOUJINXINGDAGUIMODEJIANCE、ZHENDUAN,YEMEIYOUCAIQUYANGEDEGELICUOSHI,YINGGUORUIDIANGENGSHIMEIYOUCAIQUXINGZHIYOUXIAODEFANGFAEZHIYIQINGMANYAN。

ZHEIYIWEIZHE,WEILAI1-2GEYUE,OUMEIDEGANRANRENSHUJIANGDALIANGZENGJIA,YILIAOZIYUANYUELAIYUEJINZHANG,BUFENQIYEHUOJIANGBUDEBUJIANGDIKAIGONGLVSHENZHITINGGONG,DAOZHIXIANGGUANGONGRENSHIYE。KAOLVDAOOUMEIJIATINGCHUXULVPUBIANJIAODI,SHIYEYIWEIZHEBUFENJIATINGHUOMIANLINXIANJINLIUZHONGDUANCONGERYINQIJIATINGYUEGONGDUANGONG,JIATINGZICHANFUZHAIBIAOEHUA;LEISIDI,BUFENQIYEDEXIANJINLIUHEZICHANFUZHAIBIAOYEHUIEHUA,SHANGYEYINXINGHUISHOUDAOTUOLEI,JINERTONGGUOYINGXIANGZHENGGEXINYONGCHUANGZAOJIZHIERDUIJINGJICHANSHENGBULIYINGXIANG。

美联储之所以匆匆忙忙地推出前述大规模刺激政策,正是因为他们看到了这些危险的前景。无论是降息、通过回购向市场注入流动性、还是QE,对遏制疫情蔓延都没有用处,但是可以缓解银行、企业的流动性紧张局面。只要银行能正常运营,维持信用创造机制畅通,美联储就能源源不断地把资金注入到银行、企业和家庭,确保这些经济细胞能够存活下去。这是前任美联储主席Ben S. Bernanke等人通过长期研究1929年大萧条得出的结论,也是Bernanke面对2008年经济危机时采用QE挽救美国经济的理论基础。本次美联储提前采取刺激政策,正是秉承了十几年前Bernanke的理论。感兴趣的读者可以阅读寇文红博士翻译的Bernanke著作《大萧条》(5年珍藏版),2013年1月出版

刺激的效果其实取决于抗疫政策

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秒速飞艇计划软件 XIANZAIMEILIANCHUZHISHENGXIALIANGGEZHONGJIWUQI,YISHIFULILV,BAOWEIERYIJINGSHENGMINGBUHUICAIQU;ERSHIQE,YIJINGZHONGQI,3YUE16RIKAISHIZHENGSHISHISHI。

秒速飞艇计划软件 XIANZAIYAOPINGGUMEILIANCHUZHEIXIEZHENGCEDEXIAOGUOHAIWEISHISHANGZAO。BINGQIE,ZHEIXIEZHENGCEDEXIAOGUO,QISHIBINGBUQUJUEYUZHEIXIEZHENGCEBENSHEN,ERSHIQUJUEYUFANGYIXIAOGUO,GENGJUTIDISHUO,SHIQUJUEYUGELIXIAOGUO。RUGUOOUMEINENGXIANGZHONGGUOZHEIYANGCAIQUYANGEDEJIUZHI、GELICUOSHI,YIQINGMANYANJIUNENGBEIEZHI,YIQINGDUIJINGJIJIUZHIYOUDUANQIYINGXIANG,BUZHIYUYINFAJINRONGWEIJIHEJINGJIWEIJI,NEIMEMEILIANCHUDECIJIZHENGCEYEJIUHUIJIANDAOHENHAODEXIAOGUO。DANSHIRUGUOOUMEIGEGUOYIRANDUIYIQINGCAIQU“SUIJINGZHENGCE”,MEILIANCHUWEILAIKONGPADECHUTAIGENGDAGUIMODEQELAIWANJIUJINRONGTIXI,QIXIAOGUOYEBUKEZHI。

OUMEIYIQINGZUIYANZHONGDESHIHOU,JIUSHIOUMEIGUSHIDAODIDESHIHOU。MUQIANOUMEIGUSHISHANGWEIDAODI。

 

对中国和A股的影响

秒速飞艇计划软件 WOMENYIRANWEICHIZAI3YUE13RIDEDIANPING《OUMEIRIGUSHIDUIAGUDEBIANJIYINGXIANGJIANGZHUJIANDANHUA》ZHONGDEPANDUAN,JI:

第一,目前全球主要央行中,中国央行的政策空间是最大的,中国国务院和央行有足够的政策工具来应对这种外部冲击。

第二,虽然欧美疫情会影响中国出口,但中国有一个巨大的国内市场,叠加国务院和央行的各种扶持政策,足以抵消这种外部冲击。

秒速飞艇计划软件 DISAN,RUGUOOUMEIRIGEGUOQIYEYINWEIYIQINGBUDEBUJIANGDIKAIGONGLVSHENZHITUICHUSHICHANG,ZHONGGUOQIYEKENENGHUITIDAIZHEIXIEQIYEZAIGONGYINGLIANZHONGDEWEIZHI,KUODASHICHANGFENE。ZHEIDUIXIANGGUANQIYESHILIHAO。

第四,按照一般的规律,海外疫情蔓延之初,对A股的负面影响较大,随后影响将越来越小,逐渐消失。实际上,我们认为A股经过前期调整,长期看非常具备配置价值,短期受外围拖累其实是很好的配置时机。等欧美疫情出现拐点,A股也大概率会出现相应的拐点。我们建议基金份额持有人坚持长期投资的理念,淡化短期波动,长期持有。

FENGXIANTISHI:BENZILIAOZHONGDESHUJULAIZIYUGONGKAIXINXI,NEIRONGYUPINGSHUJINGONGCANKAO,BINGBUGOUCHENGRENHECAOZUOJIANYIHUOTUIJIAN。TOUZIYOUFENGXIAN,TOUZIZHEYINGGENJUZISHENFENGXIANCHENGSHOUNENGLIYUCHANPINDESHIPEIXINGJINSHENTOUZI。JIJINGUANLIRENCHENGNUOYICHENGSHIXINYONG、QINMIANJINZHIDEYUANZEGUANLIHEYUNYONGJIJINZICHAN,DANBUBAOZHENGJIJINYIDINGYINGLI,YEBUBAOZHENGZUIDISHOUYI。TOUZIRENGOUMAIJIJINSHIYINGXIANGXIYUEDUBENJIJINDEJIJINHETONGHEZHAOMUSHUOMINGSHUDENGFALVWENJIAN,LEJIEBENJIJINDEJUTIQINGKUANG。JIJINDEGUOWANGYEJIJIQIJINGZHIGAODIBINGBUYUSHIQIWEILAIYEJIBIAOXIAN,YEBUGOUCHENGJIJINYEJIBIAOXIANDEBAOZHENG。